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The Bump-and-Run Reversal Top is a bearish reversal pattern identified by Thomas Bulkowski. It consists of three phases: a lead-in trend along a trendline, a "bump" where price accelerates away from the trendline at a steeper angle, and a reversal where price falls back through the original trendline.
The pattern captures the psychology of a blow-off top. The lead-in is the healthy trend, the bump is the speculative excess, and the reversal is the inevitable return to reality.
Bulkowski's research shows this pattern has strong statistical performance, particularly when the bump reaches at least twice the height of the lead-in phase.
The lead-in phase establishes a sustainable trend. Price advances along a trendline at a moderate angle — orderly, healthy buying.
The bump phase is pure speculation. Price accelerates away from the trendline as FOMO takes over. The angle steepens dramatically. This phase is unsustainable — the steeper the bump, the harder the fall.
The reversal begins when the speculative excess exhausts itself. Price falls back to the original trendline and breaks through it, trapping everyone who bought during the bump. The measured target is the height of the bump projected downward.
Short when price breaks below the lead-in trendline. Aggressive traders can short when the bump starts rolling over.
Above the most recent swing high within the bump. Keep it above the point where the bump started curving down.
The start of the lead-in phase — where price first touched the trendline. This often represents a full retracement of the entire advance.
Often 1:3 or better given the extended nature of the pattern.
Bump-and-run tops are particularly relevant in crypto, where speculative blow-off tops are common. The pattern essentially captures the lifecycle of a hype cycle.
Every crypto parabola is a potential bump-and-run. Draw the pre-parabola trendline — when price returns to it, the pattern is in play.
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