What it is
The Bump-and-Run Reversal Top is a bearish reversal pattern identified by Thomas Bulkowski. It consists of three phases: a lead-in trend along a trendline, a "bump" where price accelerates away from the trendline at a steeper angle, and a reversal where price falls back through the original trendline.
The pattern captures the psychology of a blow-off top. The lead-in is the healthy trend, the bump is the speculative excess, and the reversal is the inevitable return to reality.
Bulkowski's research shows this pattern has strong statistical performance, particularly when the bump reaches at least twice the height of the lead-in phase.
The psychology
The lead-in phase establishes a sustainable trend. Price advances along a trendline at a moderate angle — orderly, healthy buying.
The bump phase is pure speculation. Price accelerates away from the trendline as FOMO takes over. The angle steepens dramatically. This phase is unsustainable — the steeper the bump, the harder the fall.
The reversal begins when the speculative excess exhausts itself. Price falls back to the original trendline and breaks through it, trapping everyone who bought during the bump. The measured target is the height of the bump projected downward.
Identification
- 01Lead-in trendline — Moderate uptrend lasting weeks to months
- 02Bump phase — Price accelerates away from the trendline at a steeper angle
- 03Bump height — At least twice the lead-in height above the trendline
- 04Price returns to and breaks the trendline — Confirms the reversal
- 01High volume during bump — Speculative excess
- 02Volume decline on return to trendline — Exhaustion
- 03Bump angle is 50%+ steeper than lead-in — Clear acceleration
- 04Pattern on daily or weekly chart — More significant
- 01Bump is less than 2× lead-in height — Not enough excess
- 02No clear lead-in phase — Need the contrast between normal and speculative
- 03Price holds above trendline — Reversal not confirmed
- 04V-shaped bump — Too fast, more likely a spike than a BARR
Execution framework
Short when price breaks below the lead-in trendline. Aggressive traders can short when the bump starts rolling over.
Above the most recent swing high within the bump. Keep it above the point where the bump started curving down.
The start of the lead-in phase — where price first touched the trendline. This often represents a full retracement of the entire advance.
Often 1:3 or better given the extended nature of the pattern.
Context matters
Bump-and-run tops are particularly relevant in crypto, where speculative blow-off tops are common. The pattern essentially captures the lifecycle of a hype cycle.
- 01Extended lead-in phase (weeks/months)
- 02Dramatic acceleration in the bump
- 03Parabolic price action with extreme volume
- 04Clear trendline to reference
- 01Short or unclear lead-in phase
- 02Shallow bump (less than 2× lead-in)
- 03Strong fundamental support for higher prices
- 04Bump holds above trendline on retest
Every crypto parabola is a potential bump-and-run. Draw the pre-parabola trendline — when price returns to it, the pattern is in play.
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