What It Is
Markets move through repeating cycles of accumulation, markup, distribution, and markdown. This framework, rooted in Wyckoff methodology, explains why trends begin, persist, and end. Understanding which phase the market is in determines everything about your strategy.
Accumulation: Smart money quietly builds positions after a decline. Price moves sideways with decreasing volume. This looks boring — that's by design. Markup: The uptrend begins. Volume increases, higher highs and higher lows form. The public catches on.
Distribution: Smart money sells into strength as the public buys. Price moves sideways at the top with high volume. Markdown: The downtrend begins. Support levels break, panic selling occurs. The cycle completes and accumulation begins again.
Phase-Based Trading
The hardest phase to identify in real-time. Look for a prolonged trading range after a significant decline, decreasing volume, and springs (price dips below range then recovers). Position early or wait for the breakout.
This is where trend-following works. Buy pullbacks, ride the trend, and add on confirmation of continuation patterns. Don't try to pick the top.
Reduce exposure. Take profits. Look for signs of supply overwhelming demand — lower highs within the range, volume on down moves, and upthrusts (price spikes above range then fails). Markdown: Stay out or go short. Don't buy dips in a markdown phase.
Apply this concept in combination with others. No single concept tells the whole story - confluence is key.
Continue through core concepts
Compare this reference with related structures and readings before applying it to a live chart.